Words. Ideas. Actions.

06 March 2023

I love watching soccer. It doesn’t really matter who’s playing, there’s just so much that glues me to the screen. Mainly, though, I think it’s the unpredictability that draws me to each and every match that crosses my path. Heck, that may be why any of us watch any sports at all; you really never know what will happen. Take this weekend’s 7–0 thrashing of Manchester United at the hands of Liverpool. I don’t really care for either of those teams, but I tuned in anyway because I knew it would be a match to remember. But I don’t think anyone could have predicted what actually happened. And that’s why we watch. 

I want to focus on both the draw and repellant nature of unpredictability tonight, though. Yes, it can beckon us. But if your brain is anything like mine, you have to prepare for the unexpected just to fit it comfortably into your life. Now, I know that may sound contradictory, but let me talk through how I think about things like this, and maybe it will make a bit more sense. See, I have a need — some might even label it a compulsion — to create and maintain as much order as possible. Even in the work I love, I get to put that into practice every day. Templates, frameworks, and systems, these are all tools and processes I employ to try and control as much chaos as possible. I know that I can’t control for everything, but employing these gimmicks usually gives me the elasticity to account for whatever comes my way. 

Let’s take earthquakes as an example. No, I’m not saying I can control for them, much less predict them. But I can put a plan in place should we have one. Because, more likely than not, we will. I can tell my family what to expect, and where to meet, and make sure our kit is well thought out and in a place where we all can  get to it at a moment’s notice. I can’t prevent earthquakes from happening, but I can be as confident as possible that we have done as much as we can to prepare for one, if it comes.

There are other events, however, that are both completely unexpected and out of our control. The COVID-19 outbreak, for instance. Or the Google layoffs. Sure, they were distant possibilities in people’s imagination, but I sure wasn’t ready for either. Thankfully, I have enough systems and frameworks in place to create the capacity (or illusion of it) to deal with them. Or so I hope. 

Besides the ManU-Liverpool match, the other inspiration for tonight’s topic was a recent “Radiolab” episode. I don’t want to ruin the payoff, but it involves the evolutionary process of crabs and how chaos is a key component. That unpredictability is terrifying to me, but also essential to my development. I can intellectualize that, but I don’t have to like it. I know that all my growth has come from change. Usually, it’s been change I had no control over. So, while I can attribute each of my personal and professional leaps to chaos and unpredictability, if I had my druthers, everything would stay static.  

Even as I type this tonight, there’s hail hitting my windows in San Francisco. We’ve lived here for almost 16 years now, and we’ve had more hail events in the last week than in all those years. I would have never predicted that. And I’m sure there are tons of other things I will not be able to predict. I just want to make sure I’ve created order in as many other aspects of my life to be able to handle whatever comes our way. Before we all evolve into crabs, of course.

See you tomorrow?

12 December 2022

By this time tomorrow, we’ll know one of the two teams competing in the World Cup Final. For now, it’s all speculation. And conjecture. And bias after favoritism shrouded as expertise about what is going to happen. But we don’t really know anything, do we? I mean, if we really think about it, we can’t even guarantee the semifinal games will even be played. We expect them. We plan for them. But we just cannot predict the future. And that is terrifying to me.

One of the recurring topics which comes up in therapy for me is this lack of control over the future. There are things we can control, things we can try to control, and then there are things we didn’t even think about trying to control. And probably couldn’t if we tried. This year’s World Cup matches have been a great example of preparing for the expected and getting continually surprised by the outcomes. Morocco in the Final? After seeing how they defended against both Spain and Portugal, it’s definitely not impossible. And if you told me that over the summer, I definitely would have questioned your mental stability. Yet, here we are. But let’s look at a few other examples of where this constant uncertainty causes me anxiety, shall we?

Earthquakes. Now, I grew up in Florida, and the most common natural disaster we see there is hurricanes. And we get to see those coming from miles away. Literally. So, we stock up on supplies, make sure there’s gas in the car, and move all the lawn furniture off the pool deck to settle in for a few days without power. With earthquakes, though, your survival kit needs to be at the ready all the time because there’s no telling when one will hit. You can control the prep, but you can’t control the prediction. And that makes me feel helpless.

These two examples are big, and could change the lives of thousands — maybe millions — of people. But unpredictability can happen at a moment’s notice, and just to you. Let’s say you’re biking to work tomorrow morning. You have on all your safety gear: helmet, flashing lights, reflective neon vest. You’re obeying every law, taking the safest route, and watching out for any hazards. But there’s still the off chance that a distracted driver could unknowingly drift into the bike lane and change your life forever. When I think about this, it’s terrifying. But I can’t live my life that way, can I? None of us can. We’d never leave the house. Or shower. Or eat anything which we may choke on. We can’t eliminate all risk, but we can minimize and prepare for a lot of it. And I’m trying to get comfortable with that.

Basically, this is a handful of paragraphs which could have been more succinctly put like this: Nobody knows anything. Instead of dreading that, thought I’m trying to embrace it. We’re having some uncertainty at work right now, too, and I think that may be amplifying my already heightened anxiety. But I’m trying to get more comfortable with the discomfort, telling myself I’ve never learned anything new from my comfort zone. I don’t think I’m doing a good job of convincing myself of that that, though. I’ll keep trying. 

See you tomorrow?